Interactive demo
Roll rates: how overdue loans move month to month
A made-up book of 1,000 loans. Change how often loans slip, cure and roll worse, and see how the overdue share changes.
Sample data. The 1,000 loans and every rate here are invented for teaching. Nothing on this page describes a real lender, customer or result.
A roll rate is the share of loans in one overdue bucket that move to another a month later. Small changes in these shares add up: a slightly higher slip rate, or fewer loans curing, can multiply the overdue share within a few months. The same idea is behind the SQL tutorial on building a roll-rate table.
How it works: each month the model moves the percentage of loans you set from one bucket to the next. Loans that reach 61+ days stay there in this sample, because recoveries are not modelled.
Move the sliders
Each month, the share of on-time loans that miss a payment and enter 1-30 days.
The share that catch up and return to Current.
The share that move into 31-60 days. Limited to 60% so it plus the cure share never passes 100%.
The share that move into 61+ days. The rest cure to 1-30 days (15%, fixed) or stay.
How far to project the book in the bar chart.
Overdue 30+ days today
8.0%
of the 1,000 sample loans
After 3 months
15.5%
the same as the starting settings
In 61+ days at that point
102
loans (none are recovered in this sample)
After 3 months, 15.5 percent of loans are more than 30 days overdue, the same as the starting settings.
Show the numbers behind the charts
| Month | Current | 1-30 days | 31-60 days | 61+ days | Over 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 800 | 120 | 50 | 30 | 8.0% |
| 1 | 784 | 108 | 56 | 53 | 10.8% |
| 2 | 764 | 103 | 55 | 78 | 13.2% |
| 3 | 744 | 100 | 53 | 102 | 15.5% |
| 4 | 725 | 98 | 51 | 126 | 17.7% |
| 5 | 706 | 95 | 50 | 149 | 19.9% |
| 6 | 688 | 92 | 48 | 172 | 22.0% |